First Lecture in the Philosophy of Probability

N N Taleb


My first lecture (Audio file) in the Princeton philosophy department uncovering flaws in the way we deal with chance.


·        Truth: True/False is highly incomplete a representation (2D in a 3D world)

·        How traditionally philosophers of science have not been able to grasp probability...

·        Trying to put probability theory on firm epistemological grounds

·        Regress arguments

·        A priori statement that resists defeat by empirical information

·        Lack of rigor with asymptotic theory, owing to different quality of preasymptotics

·        Why CLT is a restriction not justified

·        The fourth quadrant, etc.