Comments for N N Taleb's Technical Blog
https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog
Probability FlaneuringThu, 05 Jan 2023 13:21:05 +0000
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Comment on Maximum Ignorance Probability, with application to surgery’s error rates by Carlos J. Gil Bellosta
https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/09/07/estimating-medical-error-rate-an-intuitive-max-entropy-method/#comment-71
Mon, 10 Jan 2022 03:00:41 +0000https://fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/?p=701#comment-71Wouldn’t make more sense to use $p_m = I^{-1}_{1/2}(m+1, n-m$? Same results, more coherent with the fact that you are inverting the CDF.
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Comment on The “Bitcoin, Currencies and Fragility” Paper by Black Paper de Nassim Taleb demonstra com argumentos e matem
https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/06/24/the-bitcoin-currencies-and-bubbles-paper/#comment-66
Sun, 05 Dec 2021 20:54:16 +0000https://fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/?p=604#comment-66[…] Black Paper de Nassim Taleb: https://fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/2021/06/24/the-bitcoin-currencies-and-bubbles-paper/ […]
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Comment on On Heart Rate Variability and Its Mismeasurement by Doug Huffman
https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/10/20/on-heart-rate-variability-and-its-mismeasurement-2/#comment-75
Sat, 23 Oct 2021 14:34:51 +0000https://fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/?p=820#comment-75I am using Marco Altini
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Comment on On Heart Rate Variability and Its Mismeasurement by Waleed Addas
https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/10/20/on-heart-rate-variability-and-its-mismeasurement-2/#comment-74
Fri, 22 Oct 2021 07:10:31 +0000https://fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/?p=820#comment-74Is this also related to entropy – the capacity for change ?
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Comment on On weighted sums of Uniformly distributed random variables by Interested party
https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/10/07/on-weighted-sums-of-uniformly-distributed-random-variables/#comment-73
Sat, 09 Oct 2021 17:10:21 +0000https://fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/?p=815#comment-73And here, we see the consequences of using the Bayesian approach for everything. Only noticed because they didn’t understand the basics enough to understand the ridiculousness of std being ~1/2 of the mean is an obvious giveaway. Even the conclusion is absurd and would require more investigation on face value. Signing at the beginning of some random form makes the average person drive more than 2,400 miles a year than they otherwise would have? In what way does the form affect the actual reasons people drive (work and shopping mainly, I assume)? Not in any meaningfully measurable way would be my guess.
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Comment on On weighted sums of Uniformly distributed random variables by Interested party
https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/10/07/on-weighted-sums-of-uniformly-distributed-random-variables/#comment-72
Sat, 09 Oct 2021 17:10:21 +0000https://fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/?p=815#comment-72And here, we see the consequences of using the Bayesian approach for everything. Only noticed because they didn’t understand the basics enough to understand the ridiculousness of std being ~1/2 of the mean is an obvious giveaway. Even the conclusion is absurd and would require more investigation on face value. Signing at the beginning of some random form makes the average person drive more than 2,400 miles a year than they otherwise would have? In what way does the form affect the actual reasons people drive (work and shopping mainly, I assume)? Not in any meaningfully measurable way would be my guess.
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Comment on Maximum Ignorance Probability, with application to surgery’s error rates by pechty9am
https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/09/07/estimating-medical-error-rate-an-intuitive-max-entropy-method/#comment-70
Wed, 22 Sep 2021 14:50:49 +0000https://fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/?p=701#comment-70Excuse me, Maestro, but don’t you mean “where $m \geq \sum x_i$”, i.e. at most $m$ dead patients?
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Comment on Maximum Ignorance Probability, with application to surgery’s error rates by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/09/07/estimating-medical-error-rate-an-intuitive-max-entropy-method/#comment-69
Sun, 19 Sep 2021 22:55:48 +0000https://fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/?p=701#comment-69The problem of bounds requires a knowledge of $latex p$. But there is such a thing as a maximum ignorance range, say between .25-.75. Replace $latex \frac{1}{2}$ by $latex \frac{1}{4}$ and $latex \frac{3}{4}$, and there is a band.
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Comment on Another Probability Error in Medicine (Golden Ratio) by Interested Party
https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/01/02/another-probability-error-in-medicine-golden-ratio/#comment-54
Sun, 12 Sep 2021 20:24:20 +0000https://fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/?p=299#comment-54How does a review like this make it through?
This is an error that should have been noticed. This is a first year stats student type of mistake, how did it go past all those eyes to get published?
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Comment on Maximum Ignorance Probability, with application to surgery’s error rates by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
https://fooledbyrandomness.com/blog/index.php/2021/09/07/estimating-medical-error-rate-an-intuitive-max-entropy-method/#comment-68
Thu, 09 Sep 2021 21:38:47 +0000https://fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/?p=701#comment-68In reply to Andrew Gelman.