The Precautionary Principle

The PP within the statistical and probabilistic structure of “ruin” problems. Applies but not limited to transgenics(GMOs)

 Project by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Rupert Read,

 Joseph Norman, and Raphael Douady

Main Paper: The precautionary principle with application to GMOs By GMOs we mean transgenics, a gene transfer process that is markedly in a distinct risk class from conventional breeding and other "modifications". The naming "GMO" is deceitful as it frames transgenics within the same class as other genetics altering processes. (Under revision).

Transgenics-GMOs: a computational complexity viewpoint where we make a connection to combinatories and how transgenics make us jump one complexity class. People into the "NP"-style discussions get it right away. (Added in December 2015)

Comment on comments (so far). Explains the death of Popperian science. Also comments to specific authors such as an apparently incompetent mathematician,  Adam Merberg, who tried to nitpick our paper and made mistakes in the process. So far we haven't received any credible or relevant technical comment. And a formal response to a biologist.

The mathematical foundations of precaution How there is a difference between sustainable risks and nonsustainable one. Show the unreliability of p-values for risk analysis. How the relation risk/benefits breaks down in the tails.

Econtalk Episode  (pedagogical podast) Russel Roberts-Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Explains why the left tail is a different statistical category.

Precaution and Climate Modeling (a short statement).

Why the PP has nothing to do with Pascal's wager

(Ineffective) Smear Campaign, an Account
How a group hired by the PR firm Ketchum harrassed secretaries at NYU, how strange articles came up, etc. Note that P.R. people, whether smear campaigners or not, are not characterized by their intelligence, lucidity, clarity of mind, or shrewdness.

Another Too Big to Fail System NYT article with Mark Spitznagel

Article on Risk and Rationality (from Skin in the Game)

How transgenics-GMOs are not likely to make it
(stubborn minority rule from Skin in the Game)

New England Complex System's Institute's home page

Real World Risk Institute Home Page

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page

Philippines' supreme court interpretation and application of our principle w.r.t. transgenics