Forthcoming Book
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, 550 pp, Fall 2012, Random House (US) & Penguin (UK). PrologueRecent Research Papers
The detection heuristic (technical paper) , or a simpler, more intuitive explanation
How to Avoid Other Crises (Forthcoming, SAIS Review) (NEW)
Why we don't know what we are talking about when we talk about probability (NEW)
Why Short Term Fat Tails Means Long Term Fat Tails (debunking illusions of "central limit theorem"; a (technical) reply to Treynor's "What can Taleb Learn From Markowitz?")
The problem is beyond psychology: the real world is more random than regression analyses, International Journal of Forecasting (NEW)
Class Material
TECHNICAL WORKS (complete book freely available) Also: Old technical works (includes part of thesis)
Technical work (by others) around the idea of The Black Swan
Important (only): gamma -at- fooledbyrandomness-dot-com. (I beg journalists & members of the media to leave me alone. Please keep very short.)
Lectures and lecture requests (Please refrain from offering honorary degrees, awards, listings "100 most...",& similar debasements of knowledge)
(part the boycott of Elsevier).