Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page

About: author of the INCERTO a philosophical and practical essay on uncertainty (Antifragile , The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes), a 4-volume "investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk,and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions in nonoverlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order."

Motto: "If you see fraud and don't shout fraud, you are a fraud".

A mathematical parallel version of the Incerto is freely available here: Silent Risk (in progress, almost complete), and here are short explanations on YouTube with the Probability Mooc.

New Book Skin in the Game, the Logic of Risk Taking The fifth volume of the Incerto is in progress. Some excerpts.

Started the Real World Risk Institute granting a Mini-Certificate


ArXiv Page for recent (technical, not philosophical) research papers on problems with probability.

Fat Tailed Statistics Project

THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE PAGE  Precaution and Climate Modeling (a short statement)

Lectures and lecture requests, Lecture clients  (Please refrain from offering honorary degrees, awards, listings in "100 most...",& similar debasements of knowledge that turn it into spectator sport).

Mail: Important (only): gamma -at- fooledbyrandomness-dot-com. The current backlog is > 10 months. (Please keep very short (postcard style); please avoid attachments and links).

I beg journalists & members of the media to get in contact with the publishers if they need to, not me (please, please). Also, please no documentary films, newspaper articles, book chapters, and interviews beyond book launches.

Publisher bio
for nontechnical stuff.

Bio to use for conferences including pictures (please no fluffy stuff, no honors, ranks, etc.)

Researcher CV with publications (note that most publications are necessarily backups to points made in the Incerto).

Facebook Forum (limited to philosophical discussions, books in progress.)

Philosophical Notebook

Short list of smear artists and why one should address the smallest number of smearers

Commentary on the Map of the Incerto

Genealogy of the INCERTO

Ethics: "If you see fraud and don't shout fraud, you are a fraud".

Duty du jour: exposing a serial plagiarist (Rolf Dobelli).

ANTIFRAGILE (most recent book)


"In Praise of Risk Takers": Best recent Profile/ Discussion of Antifragile; My Best Interview; Letter in Nature explaining what Antifragile is NOT about.

Short TV Summary (CNBC) and (more technical) EDGE Essay: Understanding is a poor substitute for Antifragility

Book Reviews of Antifragile that summarize the idea (or deal with the book on its own terms): 1) Long Wall Street Journal Essay (my own summary but limited to policy applications, without the fun/personal part) , 2) Harvard Business Review Excellent! 3) Ralph Nader (syndicated) on ethics (mandatory skin in the game) & on" a boisterous and witty antidote to bureaucratic and individual anomie", 4) Library Journal (Excellent!) 5) TIMES , 5) Fortune ( detected "what goes unsaid is that he's a very funny writer... finely tuned BS detector."), 6 ) Emotional & touching review (The Independent) , 7) Foreign Policy (2 peer-reviews), 8) Matt Ridley in the Wall Street Journal, 9) Newsweek/The Daily Beast (gets the point) , 10) NYT: Is Michiko Kakutani Incompetent or Just Crazy? My own Op-Ed in the NewYork Times 11) Observer Profile, 12) Economist (error: "like a bodybuilder" should read "like a butcher"), 13 Nature , 14) Forbes , 15) Spectator, 16) New Statesman (nostalgia for the 19th Century hobbyist), 17) NY Post ("artists are better under pressure"), 18) McLean (Canada) , 19) Asia Times , 20) MN Progressive Project, 21) Winipeg Free Press, 22) BN Reviews (Got the Nietzsche analogy right), 23) Edit Innovation , 24) Financial Times 25) A smart Mexican philologist, 26) Very, very technical (to me the most important) review, 27) Knowledge@ Wharton 28) 29) Il Sole 24Ore 30) China Post 31) New Spectator 32) Le Temps (Geneva) 33) Leadership Now 34) Aftenposten (Norwegian) 35) Daily Kos 36) Technology TC 37) GBN (Stewart Brand) 38) Start Up (Engl) (Français) 39) Phila Inquirer 40) Marketing Doughnut 41) TIMES (NZ) 42) The Antifragile Enterprise 43) Nouvel Economiste (fr), 44) Avenire (it) 45) The Epistemologist Steve Fuller 46) ENGINEERS (IEEE) 47) Why Are Old Technologies Hard to Kill? 48) Architecture Organizationelle (fr.) 49) Oil Explorations 50) BIG DATA 51) Aftenposten 52) Edge Perspectives HEALTH CARE: 53) Disease Management Care, 54) Health Care (Blog) PHILOSOPHY 55) Philosophy Now

En Français: Contrepoints